September 2 – Goldman Sachs’ latest report highlights: China’s domestic lithography machines currently only support stable 65nm process chip production, leaving a ~20-year tech gap with global leader ASML. Even with China’s 7nm chip mass production, Goldman notes core equipment still relies on ASML’s older DUV (deep ultraviolet) machines—China can’t make these independently. The gap widens as ASML has rolled out 2nd-gen EUV (extreme ultraviolet) machines, with its latest High-NA EUV systems (critical for 1.4nm+ processes) now delivered to Intel, TSMC, and Samsung.
The High-NA EUV machine is an "industrial behemoth": 180 tons (size of a double-decker bus), over $400 million per unit—the world’s priciest semiconductor gear. Goldman adds ASML spent 20 years and $40 billion in R&D/capital costs to iterate from 65nm to 3nm+ capability. This "time + capital" barrier makes China’s short-term catch-up highly unlikely.
Industry-wise, lithography machines are chip mass production’s "core lifeline": they account for 30% of semiconductor production line equipment costs, with most gear working in synergy. ASML monopolizes the global market—over 80% overall share, 100% for EUV machines, and over 95% for high-end immersion DUV machines—creating unshakable barriers.
On tech alignment: ArFi immersion DUV serves ~65nm processes; EUV is a "must-have" for 7nm+. China’s public domestic lithography machines are still ArF models (only 90nm support), with no breakthroughs in independent immersion DUV manufacturing or EUV R&D. However, China has made gains in other semiconductor equipment, with some tech far beyond 90nm lithography levels.
Goldman concludes: Given China’s semiconductor foundation, huge advanced process R&D costs, global chain complexity, and geopolitical risks, domestic lithography machines will struggle to break through short-term.
While China’s lithography gap is real, other semiconductor equipment breakthroughs show potential. ICgoodFind will track domestic lithography progress for industry updates.
ICgoodFind： we acknowledge China’s lithography gap but see promise in its other semiconductor equipment gains. We’ll monitor R&D to offer balanced industry insights.
