Korea's memory giants will report Q3 2026 results this week: SK Hynix on Wednesday, Samsung Electronics on Thursday. With AI chip demand rising and memory prices climbing, the two are expected to post combined Q3 operating profit of KRW 184.4 trillion.
Samsung's October 8 preliminary results showed Q3 revenue up 127% year-over-year to KRW 195 trillion, and operating profit of KRW 107.4 trillion, nearly 8x the prior-year KRW 12.17 trillion. Analysts surveyed by FnGuide expect SK Hynix Q3 revenue of KRW 98.2 trillion and operating profit of KRW 77 trillion. For comparison, Samsung and SK Hynix's combined full-year 2025 operating profit was KRW 90.8 trillion. If forecasts hold, Samsung would become the first Korean company with quarterly operating profit above KRW 100 trillion.
Despite strong earnings expectations, share prices have lagged. As of the October 23 close, Samsung and SK Hynix were down 36% and 52% from end-June levels. Investors see strong results as priced in, so reaction is muted. A senior semiconductor industry official noted that versus June highs, the memory supply-demand business environment has actually improved, but expectations are so high that strong earnings alone cannot lift shares further.
Analysts say HBM4 supply, long-term agreements, and shareholder returns are key to a stock recovery. The market is watching HBM4 shipments and HBM4E mass production readiness. TrendForce forecasts HBM average selling prices will rise 121% next year on constrained supply and higher HBM4 volumes. Reports say Samsung and SK Hynix have sold out next year's output, and must prove through pricing negotiations and next-gen orders whether memory demand exceeds market expectations.
Long-term supply agreements are critical to judging this memory boom's durability. In Q2 results, Samsung disclosed LTAs with five data center customers, and SK Hynix finalized multi-year contracts with over ten customers. This earnings season will focus on new LTA counts and their share of total capacity, to judge whether stable profits hold once 2028 memory supply rises.
On shareholder returns, Samsung announced a KRW 90–110 trillion return plan this year, with about KRW 30 trillion in Q3 cash dividends to be set by month-end and the remainder decided in January. After SK Hynix's KRW 40 trillion buyback in August, additional returns are expected; halting the Solidigm IPO review raised expectations further, with Hana Securities estimating at least KRW 30 trillion in extra returns.
Kim Dong-won, head of KB Securities, said that despite the sharp pullback, earnings estimates for Samsung and SK Hynix have been raised, and the key catalysts for a re-rating will be earnings growth sustainability and stronger shareholder returns.
ICgoodFind Summary: Samsung and SK Hynix's combined Q3 operating profit is forecast at KRW 184 trillion, nearly twice full-year 2025, yet shares are still down 30–50% from June highs. The market's question has shifted from "how much they earn" to "how long they can keep earning"—HBM4 shipment pace, LTA coverage, and shareholder returns will decide whether this boom turns into a valuation recovery.
