As AI infrastructure expands and GPU demand surges, NVIDIA's upcoming Rubin platform is set to drive massive HBM4 consumption. While all three major memory makers are nearing completion of HBM4 validation, conflicting reports have created uncertainty about the final supply landscape.
TrendForce projects that NVIDIA will integrate all three suppliers into its HBM4 ecosystem. It notes Samsung is progressing fastest, SK Hynix may leverage its partnership for volume allocation, and Micron, while slightly behind, is also expected to complete validation by Q2 2026.
However, SemiAnalysis presents a starkly contrasting view. The firm has slashed Micron's projected HBM4 share for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform to 0% , predicting a Korean duopoly with SK Hynix taking 70% and Samsung securing 30% . It states there is "no indication" NVIDIA has placed orders with Micron.
The core issue: Micron allegedly failed to meet NVIDIA's 11Gbps+ data transfer speed requirement set in Q3 2025 to maximize Vera Rubin performance. Despite Micron's claims of compliance, industry sources suggest it fell short. Samsung is now confirmed to begin mass HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA shortly.
ICgoodFind : HBM4 validation is nearing completion, but the supply chain faces divergent forecasts. While TrendForce sees a three-player race, SemiAnalysis data suggests Micron's performance gap has already locked in a Korean duopoly for NVIDIA's next-gen AI platform.
