According to the latest report from Taiwan’s Commercial Times, recent quotes for DDR4 and DDR5 have climbed sharply, with mature‑process memory not weakening as new generations emerge but instead showing the abnormal pattern of “older generations becoming more expensive than newer ones.” In its latest automotive semiconductor report, Barclays warns: “Automotive DRAM has entered a supply gap.”
Barclays analysis indicates the root cause of the global DRAM shortage lies in soaring DRAM demand from AI data centers, especially the explosion in HBM (High‑Bandwidth Memory) demand, which is forcing the three major memory makers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—to prioritize production of higher‑margin HBM, squeezing out capacity for lower‑margin DRAM used in automotive and consumer electronics.
Together, the three DRAM suppliers account for about 90% of global DRAM capacity and hold roughly 88% of the automotive DRAM market, yet automotive DRAM represents less than 5% of their total revenue. With capacity unable to expand rapidly, automotive DRAM naturally becomes a marginal market that is sacrificed. Barclays expects the three majors to fully shift toward HBM production by 2026, further tightening automotive DRAM supply.
From a price perspective, DRAM increases are showing non‑linear surges. According to Bloomberg data, as of January 2026, DDR4 prices have risen 1,845% year‑over‑year, up more than 1,099% since June 2025, even exceeding the 465% rise for DDR5. This indicates that mature‑process DRAM has broken from the traditional tech‑generation price curve, entering a “supply‑constrained price explosion” phase.
Barclays notes that earlier market estimates projected automotive DRAM price increases of about 30% to 100% for 2026–2027, but actual spot prices are already far above those levels, showing earlier forecasts were too conservative. The report further analyzes that DRAM costs have a much larger impact on electric vehicles than on internal‑combustion vehicles, potentially reaching about 1% of the total bill of materials (BoM) for mid‑range EVs such as the Tesla Model 3/Y.
In an extreme scenario, if DRAM prices rise 500% year‑over‑year, high‑end EV DRAM costs could jump from $200 in 2025 to $1,200, adding $1,000 per vehicle in extra cost.
Among automakers, Tesla and Rivian are seen as the most exposed due to their zonal/central computing architectures and high‑level ADAS systems, which require significantly more DRAM than traditional vehicles. S&P data also shows that Tesla is the automaker with the highest DRAM value per vehicle globally, followed by German premium brands such as BMW, Audi, and Mercedes.
ICgoodFind : The automotive DRAM shortage has escalated from a supply‑chain warning to a direct cost pressure. Carmakers and suppliers are advised to strengthen capacity coordination and optimize memory solutions to navigate a prolonged tight supply environment.
