SEMI President and CEO Ajit Manocha said during SEMICON West 2026 that with AI and quantum computing driving demand, the global semiconductor industry could reach $3 trillion around 2035**, and hitting **$2 trillion is "entirely feasible."
Manocha cited historical growth: the industry took about 50 years to reach $500 billion**, but doubled from **$500 billion to $1 trillion in the past five years**. With **AI demand** expanding, another rapid growth phase has a real basis. He noted that hitting exactly **$3 trillion by 2035 depends on multiple factors; even if slightly delayed, it would more likely happen between 2037 and 2040, provided geopolitical tensions or major economic crises do not further fragment the global industry ecosystem.
Equipment forecasts support this vision. SEMI expects global semiconductor equipment sales to approach $166 billion in 2026** and reach **$230 billion by 2028. On whether the equipment supply chain can keep up, Manocha said up to 102 fabs could be operating by 2029, with 82 already under construction; after 2029, the market may need about 50 more fabs.
Manocha noted that as long as equipment makers see clear ROI and confirmed orders, other parts of the chain must follow. While staged bottlenecks may appear during expansion, the semiconductor industry has been through multiple cycles and has strong supply chain resilience.
ICgoodFind Summary: Going from $500 billion to $1 trillion took five years, and SEMI puts the next trillion-dollar leap around 2035. The 102 fabs built or planned are the physical basis for that call, and the pace of equipment order confirmation will determine whether expansion lands on schedule.
