Samsung Electronics' Mobile Experience (MX) division has told supply chain partners to cut Q4 product supply by 20% to 30%, according to Korean media MoneyToday. That means actual Q4 smartphone output could fall by up to 30%, a deeper cut than the market expected.
The core driver is surging phone memory prices. TrendForce data shows 12GB LPDDR5X phone memory hit $145–146** in Q2 2026, up **175% year-over-year**. Q3 phone DRAM contract prices are expected to rise another **20%**, with 12GB specs potentially reaching **$180. AI data centers are siphoning memory capacity, keeping consumer DRAM supply tight and prices high.
This cost pressure is hitting Samsung's phone profitability directly. Sources say Samsung phone sales now generate "no profit at all," making output cuts a defensive move to protect overall margins. IDC had forecast Samsung Q3 and Q4 smartphone shipments at about 59 million and 52 million units. Q4 already had a seasonal 12% sequential decline, and Samsung's active cut goes well beyond that.
The full-year revision is steep. Samsung had expected 270 million smartphones for the year, boosted by Galaxy Z Fold8 and other new models. With the Q4 cut, full-year output may only slightly exceed 200 million units, a drag of more than 60 million units.
Samsung's October 8 Q3 guidance tells a different story. The company expects revenue of about KRW 195 trillion and operating profit of about KRW 107.4 trillion, the first time quarterly operating profit tops KRW 100 trillion and a nearly 8x year-over-year jump. Memory chips drove the profit, with AI infrastructure demand lifting HBM and server DRAM profitability. Some brokerages expect the MX division to post a Q3 operating loss of KRW 1.9 trillion, a sharp contrast to the record memory profit.
ICgoodFind Summary: Samsung's memory business earns record profits while its phone unit is forced to cut output on runaway memory costs. This internal split shows AI compute's crowding-out of memory capacity has spread from data centers to consumer devices.
